UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA - AFRICAN STUDIES CENTER
III. PRIORITIES FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL
III. PRIORITIES FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL
FOOD PRODUCTION AND FOOD SECURITY
Within the next three decades, food needs in Africa will triple. During the same period, per capita
arable land is expected to decline to less than half of the current levels. In these conditions, it
is undeniable that the future improvement of African food self-sufficiency and food security situation
depends critically on the sustainable growth in agricultural food production.
In order to feed a population which is growing at a rate of 3 per cent per year, a minimum target
growth of 5 per cent per year must be achieved during the next 15 to 25 years. As mentioned earlier,
most policies needed to give an impetus to agricultural food production have been laid down in the
past pro-nouncements. Africa's first priority lies in the need to revisit these pronouncements and
translate them into impact-driven action, the various important prescriptions that were recommended.
These priorities, most of which are drawn from these pronouncements, are framed at national,
subregional, regional and interna-tional levels.
A. At national level
(a) General agricultural development
Successful agricultural food production and food security could be achieved through:
(a) According a special attention to input use and service delivery;
(b) Assessing the relevance of existing research systems in developing technologies that the African
agriculture sector needs;
(c) Restoring, protecting and developing arable land and rendering it more productive;
(d) Accounting for the deterioration of natural resources and the environment;
(e) Promoting agriculture mechanization;
(f) Accessing agricultural education and training in view to making sure that they respond to the
needs of African agriculture; and
(g) Promoting technology acquisition and development, particularly biotechnology now recog-nized as a
key factor that can revolutionize agriculture and food production in Africa.
(b) Development of sectors in support of agriculture
The success in Africa's effort in achieving the stated objectives for food security achievement will
depend on the parallel development of agro-industries, appropriate physical and institutional
infrastructure, agricultural capacity building and improved macroeconomic management.
(i) Agro-industries
If agriculture grows at its target level, and the surplus is not absorbed by other productive
activities, farm prices will be depressed and the initial growth will not be sustainable. The overall
economy must grow at such a rate that it can utilize the surplus of production. This requires other
sectors to grow, in particular, agro-industries sector.
Agro-industry in Africa accounts for over 60 per cent of the manufacturing value added of the region,
but a relatively small amount of agricultural commodities is industrially processed. Most of the food
stuffs (grain, tubers and oilseeds) are processed at home while processing of export commodities such
as fruit, coffee, cocoa, rubber, cotton, etc., are limited both in terms of quantity and the stage of
processing. Processing of agricultural commodities, especially those which are seasonal and
perishable will increase their availability, reduce food import, thereby improving the declining trend
in self-sufficiency as well as increas-ing better market opportunities and provide stimulus to
increase food production.
On the basis of the above advantages, several resolutions of the United Nations General assembly have
laid special emphasis on the processing of raw materials in countries of origin. Nevertheless, as of
1992, only few African agricultural commodities such as cotton (52 per cent), oilseeds (40 per
cent),fish (20 per cent), fruits and vegetables (15 per cent) were processed into the final stage.
Certain crops, namely sorghum, millet, cassava and other starchy roots and tubers, fruits, and milk
undergo very little industrial processing.
African countries, individually and as a group need to take immediate measures in order to accelerate
the processing of agricultural raw materials. But the different national governments must play a
great role in industrial promotion, particularly in small-scale industries of which those related to
animal feed deserve a special attention. This role requires the creation by the governments of a
minimal set of infrastructures and facilities for the benefit of small-scale entrepreneurs. These
facilities should include, inter alia, agro-industrial estates with public facilities
(roads, water, electricity), financial schemes for the purchase of equip-ment, working capital.
(ii) Appropriate physical and institutional infrastructure
The role of the public sector in economic life also needs to be viewed from a pragmatic standpoint
with a serious consideration to widely differing national circumstances, experiences and capabilities.
Closely related to this issue is the question of the most appropriate role of the state in a market-
oriented economy with appropriate institutions, appropriate infrastructure conducive to a thriving
agriculture and its sustain-ability. Emphasis should be put on:
(a) Building appropriate rural transport systems that are less capital intensive;
(b) Building appropriate water and soil management; and
(c) Improving local ownership and control over rural institutions by the people.
(iii) Agricultural capacity building, research and extension
A major missing ingredient that has been responsible for Africa's poor economic performance is the
lack of adequate indigenous capacity in several critical areas of human, institutional and
infrastructural development. Capacity building is an enormous and complex undertaking, which will
need to be sustained over several decades and with significant financial outlay. Capacity building is
probably the only solid plat-form from which Africa can be launched on to the path of sustained
recovery, accelerated growth, environ-mentally sustainable development, equitable distribution of
socio-economic opportunities and steady allevia-tion of poverty. Development is not solely a matter
of economics, pulling a few economic levers here and there. Pointed attention must also be paid to
institution building, popular participation, village associations and groups, and an end to
circumscribed freedoms. We have now come to appreciate that participation by citizens in all of the
institutions of a society~-~political as well as economic~- is a prerequisite for develop-ment.
A strong non-farm sector that supports the development of agriculture - roads, transport, water,
credit, rural electrification, marketing structures, etc., - must be coupled with human capacities
(policy makers, researchers, extension agents and farmers), which are also needed in the specific case
of food security and self-sufficiency. Capacity building in terms of human resources involves
education and training, managerial competence and participatory capabilities.
The need to strengthen training skills and analytical capacity within national governments to assess
ex-ante the likely effects of different policy measures, but also for dealing with competing
political pressures from consumers and producers must be emphasized. The dual role of food prices -
determining food consumption levels (consumers, especially among the poor), and the adequacy of food
supplies through incentives to farmers - raises an obvious dilemma for food policy analysts. The
inverse impact of food prices on producers and consumers creates significant dilemma which, if
managed, while trying to achieve all the above-mentioned food policy objectives, is the essence of a
successful food policy. That success requires an understanding of the political economy of food
prices and tools for managing a country's border price. Macroeconomic forces outside the agricultural
sector are too pervasive and too powerful, hence, when they work at cross purposes to micro sectoral
strategies, they create an unfavourable macroeconomic environment and can, therefore, erode even the
best laid down plans. Likewise, policy actions in other sectors of the economy that have greater
impact on the agricultural sector than policy intervention in agricul-ture must also be addressed.
One such sector is related to technological development through research. It is accepted throughout
the world that a thriving agricultural sector can be maintained only if technology and research keep
track on a continuous basis. The greatest factor behind Africa's tale of death, starvation and
malnutrition is the region's "under developed" agriculture. Technological change and
research mean not just higher agricultural productivity; they will impact the entire system of
technical, socio-economic, institutional and political arrangements. There is, therefore, little
question that policies for increasing economic growth and equity, especially increased agricultural
productivity, must provide the bedrock for future development. Increased yields will call for an
urgent need for higher investment in agricultural research and technology to ensure enhancement and
stabilization of yields. Increased yields will also mean rational utilization of natural resources a
sine qua non for sustainability in food production. Investment aimed at improving the capa-
bilities of the poor, by putting most of Africa's eggs in the basket of small-holders will lead to the
achieve-ment of short-term goals in tandem with long-term development. This is what has happened to
such coun-tries as different as China and Indonesia, Malaysia, India and Thailand.
At the subregional and regional levels, the lack of broadly accepted strategic plans to guide the
colla-borative efforts has limited their effectiveness and, when viewed from a regional perspective,
in conformity with the Abuja Treaty establishing the African Economic Community, duplication of effort
at the national level has resulted in less than efficient use of scarce resources. The financial and
institutional sustainability of the national, subregional and regional efforts have been constrained
by the lack of national determination and funding mechanisms to facilitate national ownership and
financing of regional activities. The limited involvement of national system leadership in decision
making has exacerbated this situation.
The following key priorities must be emphasized:
(a) Development of agricultural research and extension through the creation of network of agronomic
research stations and extension for the design and diffusion of appropriate technologies;
(b) Establishment of assistance programmes for small farmers, especially women food producers, rural
and youth;
(c) Radical change of the education systems at all levels to ensure that the skills, knowledge and
attitudes that are relevant to Africa's food sector development needs are generated;
(d) Efficient utilization of manpower resources, including measures to reverse the brain-drain of
African food experts and guarantee human rights; and
(e) Intensified efforts to promote mass literacy and farmer learning programmes.
(iv) Macroeconomic management
Macroeconomic policies have an important influence on the development of the food and agricultural
sector and food security, both in the short and longer term, through their effects on prices, incomes
and employment. These non-agricultural and economy-wide policies such as industrial protection and
fiscal policies are highly crucial to food security; but so are food- and agriculture-related policies
because of how they affect the speed of urbanization (through rural out-migration) and the provision
of food itself. The direct and indirect protection and taxation of economic sectors determine their
relative competitiveness, which, in turn, determines resource flows in the economy. The choice of
development strategy is highly relevant for the long-run effects of macroeconomic policies on economic
growth and alleviation of poverty.
The macroeconomic policies should therefore be designed to strengthen rather than counteract the
incentives for agricultural development provided by means of sectoral policies. In this regard,
structural adjustment policies for correcting macroeconomic disequilibria would need to put greater
emphasis on growth-, income- and employment-generating aspects by removing constraints and bottle-
necks to quality growth and equity. The design, the sequencing and the implementation of such
policies should take into account social costs, in particular adverse effects on nutrition, health and
education. These costs must be minimized in order to safeguard the human resources potential on which
development depends.
The key instruments for achieving macroeconomic stability will thus include
(a) Continued privatization with recognition of the proper role of the State;
(b) Liberalization of trade and support for regional integration;
(c) Good governance and leadership with decentralized and democratic institutions;
(d) Proper management of equilibrium real exchange rates.
(c) Environmental conservation strategies
As mentioned above, reducing poverty, eliminating food insecurity while preserving the environment is
a real challenge for Africa. Given the set targets, any increase in food production will require some
increase in area planted, thus clearing forest. To limit the extent of large area expansions require
intensifica-tion of agriculture through the use of mineral and organic fertilizers. Of course, there
are costs associated with the use of fertilizers; but it will be important for African policy makers
to take concerted actions in order to:
(e) Develop techniques, resource management capacities, policies and technologies that are acceptable
to farmers in their environment, etc.
As stated by FAO, one of the most serious problems facing the African countries in the medium and
long term is that of land degradation by drought, desertification and man-induced actions. The food
security, the economic well-being and the quality of life of African people depend on the continent's
croplands, pastures, and forests, all of which are threatened by land degradation and lack of
appropriate policy towards water harvesting.
Some specific actions have been taken so far and need to be strengthened. Among them are FAO
schemes: To assist African countries in the prevention of and to combat land degradation in the
region, FAO has designed the International Scheme for the Conservation and Rehabilitation of African
Lands (ISCRAL) which was approved by its Regional Conference for Africa, held in Marrakech, Morocco in
1990. In addition, through its major functions of assessment and monitoring of the natural resources,
policy and planning assistance, development of technologies, capacity building and field demonstration
in the agriculture, livestock, forestry, fisheries and rural development and structural transformation
sectors, FAO is contributing actively to the control of desertification, mitigation of the effects of
drought and integrated dry-land development in the affected countries of Africa, especially in African
low-income food-deficit coun-tries (LIFDCs).
(d) Other policy reforms
The political and humanitarian problems facing the African continent and which are attracting so much
public attention, are manifestation of a more deep-rooted structural crisis which requires concerted
action by all partners in order to address its causes at the most fundamental level, namely reducing
and eliminating poverty through empowering the rural people, specifically women farmers,
decentralization of the economic decision-making process, development and transformation of the rural
sector, reduction of the income differential between the cities and the rural areas, etc. It is only
within such framework that humani-tarian assistance must be designed to ensure an effective
continuum from relief to rehabilitation, reconstruc-tion and longer-term development with
transformation. Other policy reforms must also emphasize:
(i) Changing food consumption patterns
The reliance on imported cereals mostly rice and wheat to feed the urban population has been facili-
tated by inappropriate domestic price and exchange rate policies that have made such import of food
rela-tively cheap, compared to traditional food such as millet, sorghum, plantains, roots and tubers;
and this has in turn negatively affected food growth performance. These trends will continue as the
projection figures in chapter II indicate. In general terms, the pressure for consumption change can
be addressed by three different policy responses. These are:
(a) Constraining consumption of the non traditional commodities (wheat, barley, etc.) through
taxation and import restrictions;
(b) Promoting export of crops and commodities to pay for rising import bills;
(c) Promoting utilization of traditional staples (for example, by improving processing of sorghum,
millet, yam, cassava) and agro-processing.
It should, however, be underlined that four fifths of the world's population still makes do with 20
per cent of the natural resources, while the other one fifth uses 80 per cent. Still, most
environmental concerns expressed in the past have been about rapid population growth in the South.
Only recently have the patterns of production and consumption in the North been questioned. Beyond
the environmental concerns, consumption-based life styles raise serious value and equity issues.
(ii) Control of population growth rate
There is considerable debate about whether or not the rate of population growth in Africa is one of
the fundamental causes of Africa's food crisis. Population is also an asset but rapid population
growth can aggravate food security situation by straining heavily available per caput food supply,
while causing damage to the environment. Thus, governments must work on population issues in socio-
economic development pro-grammes and policies such as appropriate land utilization and settlement
patterns, family planning, etc.
(iii) Participation of people in the development of food security programmes
Special attention should be devoted to the role played by human resources. Policies will need to be
pursued to ensure the effective development and utilization of human resources in the field of
agriculture and food sector through:
(a) Ensuring the effective participation of people in all dimensions of food sector development;
(b) Developing indigenous entrepreneurship capacities, both private and public.
In food and agricultural sector, the focus of attention must be the peasant farmer with special
reference to female farmers who dominate food production in most countries.
(iv) Measures for political stability and peace
Wars between countries have also aggravated the food security situation. Physical infrastructure has
been destroyed, resources have been diverted to buy weapons; therefore, many farmers have left their
farms and food production has dropped. While agricultural food development should be viewed as a
long-term process, many African Governments have short-term objectives because they are mainly
concerned with short-term measures that would ensure support from the most politically influential
groups, i.e., the urban population. Scarce resources should be used to meet basic productive
requirements for the rural popula-tions. For this objective to be achieved, measures for peace and
political stability are needed.
B. At subregional level
In order to deal with the divergence and duplications among African countries, the following actions
are necessary, bearing in mind the common problems faced by the groups of countries concerned in their
efforts to improve their food security situation.
The areas most seriously affected by drought and desertification will have less opportunities in
rais-ing domestic resources for implementing the priorities for improving the food security programme.
For the Sahelian countries, the road to self-sufficiency in food production and food security is paved
with particular difficulties, especially as they are not in the position to mobilize from domestic
resources to implement the priority programme. These countries have mostly to tackle the
environmental, development and human capacities problems. Special programmes for afforestation as
well as for the development and utilization of water resources will have to be put in place. Special
investments should be made to develop research of drought-resistant crop varieties.
With regard to land-locked countries, investment should be made to develop sub-tropical agricultural
research in crop diversification, high-yield seeds and pest control. They also need to conduct
intensive research in methods to combat animal and livestock diseases. At the same time, the problem
of storage, transport and transit also requires large investments.
The African island countries which are virtually isolated from the mainland both in terms of trans-
port and communication as well as trade need to develop special programmes for the development of food
trade and transport linkages.
For the North African countries, emphasis should be on programmes aimed at reducing drought,
improving water systems for irrigation, reducing soil erosion and desertification.
C. At regional level
Strengthening the institutional framework through proper social and economic management of the
priority programme will only materialize if African countries urgently strengthen their social and
economic institutions at all levels. African national and subregional institutions must be made more
responsive to the challenges of food security through the improvement of their management systems.
Efforts should be made to implement existing regional integration agreements, especially the Abuja
Treaty establishing the African Economic Community, and improve market intelligence in view of
consolidating African cooperation. Governments should increase intra- and interregional trade through
better response to changes in demand and consumption preferences.
D. At the international level
One matter of concern to African countries in the 1990s and beyond is the outcome of the Uruguay
Round negotiations.
In theory, reforms to reduce agricultural protection would reduce world market distortions and
improve market access. They could also lead to increases in world prices of previously subsidized
agricul-tural products, including cereals, meat and dairy products, and sugar. These changes would
benefit develop-ing and transition economies which are important exporters of these products. Some
studies cited by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) The Impact of Uruguay Round
on Developing and Transition Economies Development Committee (DC/94-18), 6 September 1994.
have concluded that prices of some previously sub-sidized products could rise by 4 to 10 per cent in
total when the full effects of the Uruguay Round are felt. However, this could be an overestimate
because these calculations were based on the text of the Draft Act of the Uruguay Round, or other more
general assumptions, which imply a higher degree of liberalization in industrial countries than was
finally agreed.
In theory again, the hope for growth of world income should itself boost the demand for agricultural
commodities while the reduction of agricultural output in developed countries as a whole would
stimulate agricultural activity in the developing countries. Given that agriculture is the major
source of employment and income in the developing countries, these developments would be expected to
improve incomes of rural households which are often the most insecure in terms of food.
A number of developing countries which are net importers of food, including some African and
Mediterranean countries, have expressed concern about possible higher food prices. According to the
World Bank and the IMF, provided that higher prices are passed on to farmers, any such effect will be
mitigated by the stimulus to agricultural production, both in the net importers' domestic agricultural
sectors and in developing countries which are net exporters of previously protected commodities.
Nevertheless, if world prices of food do rise overall, individual countries that remain net importers
of commercial food will face increased costs. For some developing countries, such terms of trade
losses are, however, most likely to be offset by gains in other areas of the Uruguay Round such as
from increased market access for manufactured goods, including textiles and clothing. It should be
noted that the higher food prices, to the extent that they occur as a result of the Uruguay Round,
will be distributed over a six-year implementation period allowing time for adjustment. In fact,
since the Round legitimizes subsidies in industrialized countries, developing countries, and
especially African countries, could introduce appropriate temporary protective policies for their
agricultural sectors and gradually eliminate such protection over the time period considered by indus-
trial countries in eliminating their subsidy policy or over the ten years the developing countries
have to complete their reduction commitments related to the Agreement on Agriculture.
According to the World Bank and the IMF, The Impact of Uruguay Round on Developing and Transition
Economies Development Committee (DC/94-18), 6 September 1994.
the major features of recent trade policy developments in developing and transition economies have
been these countries' unilateral liberalization of their trade systems, and the extent to which they
have taken other steps to improve their ability to compete in interna-tional markets and to integrate
themselves more fully in the multilateral trading system. The successful conclusion of the Uruguay
Round will support these measures through increased market access, the integra-tion of new and
sensitive areas into the multilateral system, and strengthened rules and institutions.
Existing estimates of the impact of the Uruguay Round on developing countries point to substantial
potential benefits, particularly to those countries which make the macroeconomic and structural policy
changes that would position them to exploit the new opportunities.
However, as also stated by FAO, it should be noted that the Agreement on Agriculture, although rather
comprehensive and going well beyond tariffs and border measures, still represents only a partial
liberalization agreement. The quantitative cuts in support to agriculture are relatively small
and spread over a number of years. Overall, a large degree of distortion in the world market of
agricultural commodities will still remain even after the complete implementation of the reduction
commitments.
In the view of FAO, the effects of the above on the stability of international prices are unclear.
On the one hand, with the removal of non-tariff barriers to trade, all countries would absorb to a
greater degree than before shocks in the world market, thus dampening the effects of market
instability. On the other hand, the general move towards liberalization and a reduced role of the
government in price support activities could lead to a fall in government stockholding of agricultural
commodities, especially in the developed countries. The reduction may not be large, but there is a
question as to whether the private sector would step in to fill the gap. If not, as seems likely,
then global food stocks are likely to be reduced. Fortunately, however, food security stocks have
been excluded in the Final Act from reduction targets. It is to be hoped that coun-tries would take
advantage of this exemption and build up adequate food security reserves, but developing countries,
especially in Africa, may not be able to make large efforts on this score as holding stocks is an
expensive undertaking. "Uruguay Round Agreement: A Preliminary Assessment". FAO
Commodities and Trade Division. March 1994.
Aside from the quantitative effects of the Uruguay Round agreement, what is probably of greater
significance, particularly in the long run, is the new shape of agricultural policies.
The way in which agricultural policy is undertaken is likely to change radically in the future.
First and foremost, this concerns the list of policies that are discouraged and those that are
acceptable. The former includes guaranteed, target, indicative or procurement prices which are
maintained at levels above those on the world market. The future is for targeted non-price decoupled
forms of support (or transfers not linked to production). Next in terms of significance is the demise
of most non-tariff barriers to trade and their conversion into tariffs (tariffication). This allows
import prices to vary with variations in world prices and hence improves the quality of price signals
faced by producers and consumers. Export subsidies are not acceptable but will be tolerated for the
time being and disciplined. Overall, trade regimes in future should be much more transparent.
"Uruguay Round Agreement: A Preliminary Assessment", op. cit.
The in-depth, commodity-by-commodity analysis that is presently under way with the knowledge of the
contents of the schedules of commitments country-by-country and commodity-by-commodity would provide a
more accurate possible quantitative impact of the Final Act. It should be noted that the impact on
agriculture of the Uruguay Round Reform is not confined to the Agreement on Agriculture as the other
changes ushered in by the Uruguay Round are likely to have certain macroeconomic effects with eventual
impact on the demand for agricultural commodities. As already stated, the Agreement on Agriculture
repre-sents only a partial liberalization and its implementation will be phased in over a period of
six years for the industrialized countries and over 10 years for the developing countries. It follows
that only part of the exist-ing distortion in world prices, will be removed as a result of the
implementation of the Agreement.
However, despite the conceptual and modelling difficulties, and although the precise commodity-
specific country offers are not included in the present analysis, some idea of the likely effects of
the agree-ment can be inferred from attempts that have been made in the recent past to assess possible
scenarios of a partial liberalization agreement. Although the particular policies simulated differ in
various degrees from those in the Final Act, and the way they are modelled does not overcome the
difficulties, the results of these attempts are the best approximations available at this stage for a
first general assessment of the Uruguay Round Agreement. The results of five such studies are
presented in table 1. "Uruguay Round Agreement: A Preliminary Assessment", FAO, op.
cit.
Although estimates of the likely changes on the value of trade are only indicative, at best, certain
patterns emerge which are worth highlighting: "Uruguay Round Agreement: A Preliminary
Assessment". FAO Commodities and Trade Division. March 1994.
(see tables 2 and 3)
(a) Estimated changes in net export earnings of developing countries in both temperate and tropical
products are relatively small (although larger for temperate zone products), particularly taking into
consideration the length of the implementation period, which implies that annual changes will be
marginal;
(b) Although not all developing countries would make net trade gains from liberalization of agri-
cultural trade, for the majority of developing countries the gains outweigh the losses;
(c) In general, anticipated gains and losses are concentrated both by product and by geographical
region, with high- to middle-income countries gaining more than the poorer countries;
(d) Expected losses of developing countries are largely concentrated in Africa whereas expected gains
are concentrated in Latin America and Asia. Africa's losses are mainly due to the loss of
preferential margins it enjoys in developed country markets under the General System of Preferences
(GSP), the Lomé Convention and other trade arrangements. According to ECA, Africa's losses are
estimated at $2.6 billion per year. All these potential losses, however, may be exactly what Africa
needs to adopt action-oriented policies to transform its agriculture from its present state into
market-oriented agriculture;
(e) Net trade gains to developing countries from agricultural trade liberalization are greater the
more they engage themselves in the reform process by removing some of the direct and indirect policies
which have discriminated against agriculture in the past;
(f) Overall, the implementation of the total Uruguay Round package ought to have positive effects on
developing countries' export earnings, with most gains coming from the ending of restraints on textile
and clothing exports under the Multi-Fibre Arrangement.
It should be emphasized that the implications for the developing countries of this new regime will
have to be seen within the framework of structural adjustment programmes (SAPs) under way. In
agricul-tural and food policy, there is already a general trend towards more precise targeting of
policies to particular groups of beneficiaries. Whether these policy changes are motivated by the new
Uruguay Round disciplines or by ongoing SAPs, both point in a rather similar direction, one where
actions to influence prices are no longer the main instruments of agricultural policy. Whether,
however, it will always be feasible for develop-ing countries to adopt non price-distorting policies
is a matter that requires further analysis. "Uruguay Round Agreement: A Preliminary
Assessment", op. cit.
(see table 4)
In fact, in addition to the special and differential provisions contained in the
Agreement on Agricul-ture, there are special provisions for developing countries
contained in the Decision on Measures Concerning the Possible Negative Effects
of the Reform Programme on Least-Developed and Net Food Importing Coun-tries.
The idea behind the Decision is that agricultural trade liberalization is likely
to lead to higher world prices for food while a reduction in export subsidies
will also raise the effective price paid by importers. There is also some concern
that the volume of food aid, which historically has been closely linked to the
level of surplus stocks, could be more limited in future as the surplus stocks
are run down. The Decision recognizes these issues and provides for some redress,
via food aid, technical assistance to raise agricultural productivity and possibly
short-term assistance to help financing normal commercial imports.