UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA - AFRICAN STUDIES CENTER
Somalia News Update 3/26- 11/94

Somalia News Update 3/26- 11/94

In this issue:
* ESCORT SERVICES OFFERED: US TROOPS HEADING BACK TO SOMALIA?
* WHERE WILL SIYAD BARRE GO?
* HARGEYSA GOES TO WAR!
* SOMALIA STALEMATE: NEITHER WAR NOR PEACE
* MOGADISHU GETS READY FOR YET ANOTHER WAR
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               S O M A L I A  N E W S  U P D A T E
 
____________________________________________________________________
 
Vol 3, No 26.           November 22, 1994             ISSN 1103-1999
 
____________________________________________________________________
Somalia News Update is published irregularly via electronic mail and
fax. Questions can be directed to Bernhard.Helander@antro.uu.se or
to fax number +46-18-151160. All SNU marked material is free to
quote as long as the source is clearly stated.
____________________________________________________________________
 
ESCORT SERVICES OFFERED: US TROOPS HEADING BACK TO SOMALIA?
 
Somalia News Update (Uppsala, November 15) - Although no formal decision has yet been made, the Clinton White House is currently contemplating to dispatch a small military force back to Somalia.The United States, which abandoned Somalia last March after 18 Army Rangers were killed in Mogadishu, is reportedly being pressured by other Western powers who want protection for the UN peacekeepers in Somalia who are expected to withdraw from Somalia by March. Britain, France and Italy made commitments to provide security during the pull-out but US Ambassador Daniel Simpson said in Nairobi that no decision has been made regarding a future US military involvement in Somalia. Although the new Republican-controlled Congress may oppose further American involvement in Somalia, the real-politik of getting US troops out of Haiti may require US troops to be redeployed in Somalia as a sign of good faith to other major Western powers. The issue of redeploying US troops in Somalia was also mentioned in a recent edition of the US Army Times.

A former UNOSOM employee told Somalia News Update that one reason behind UNOSOM's attempts to have their mandate in Somalia extended was the fears of the military commander, General Aboo, who is afraid for the safety of his troops. Following the Security Council's decision last month to abort the UN mission by March 31, the logistics of the withdrawal have assumed an acute importance. The type of military support expected to be furnished by the US will most likely be air surveillance and off-shore fire power.

WHERE WILL SIYAD BARRE GO?

Somalia News Update (Uppsala, November 22) - A broad range of rumours in Somali exile circles currently has it that [Mohammed] Siyad Barre, Somalia's former dictator, is heading back to the Horn of Africa from Nigeria where he has been staying since 1991. According to the rumours, Siyad's current Nigerian hosts are unwilling to see his stay there prolonged and he is therefore seeking to go to Eritrea, the home of his son-in-law and former cabinet official Mr. Ahmed Saleebaan Dafle. An official at the Eritrean embassy in Stockholm, Mr. Jonas Mana, told Somalia News Update that the rumour comes as a surprise to him and that it at present is "impossible to deny or confirm these allegations."

HARGEYSA GOES TO WAR!

Somalia News Update (Uppsala, November 21) - Fighting erupted in the capital of the self-proclaimed Somaliland Republic last week. A government declaration describes the events as triggered by the same gang of ex-SNM militias that controlled the Hargeysa airport until government troops regained control of the airport in October.

The rebel group, most of whom come from the Idagalle sub-clan, regrouped some 50 kilometres from Hargeysa, close to the Ethiopian border. From their camp they started mounting armed incursions into neighbouring civilian areas. On Monday, November 12, government forces attacked and captured the camp and all the ordinance of the militia group with it. Also fourteen artillery pieces, one "technical" and two trucks were captured in the camp. The group then fled with their remaining six vehicles mounted with various heavy guns.

Pursued by government forces, at least two rebel vehicles entered Hargeysa where they reportedly opened fire on a crowd at a busy market and attempted to rob a bank.

The government declaration admitted that the rebels rapidly gained an upper hand in the Hargeysa fighting but accredit this to the restraint displayed by government forces in order not to jeapordize civilian lives. Despite such efforts at least 60 to 70 civilians are estimated to have been killed in the fighting.

On Wednesday last week Hargeysa was reported calm but telecommunication lines remained unreliable throughout the weekend. The rebels are said to have received some support from the local community in Hargeysa but it is unknown to what extent and from what clans. Two days after the first fighting at the rebel camp, Idagalle elders published an invitation for a conference in the independent Hargeysa newspaper Xoriya.

At present, government troops are said to be conducting search operations throughout Hargeysa in order to capture hidden rebels and confiscate their weapons.

SNU-COMMENT: It is difficult not to seek to connect the fighting with President Egal's recent invitation to the southern Somali factions to attend a peace conference in Hargeysa. While the SSA factions have responded positively to this and recently sent the chairman of USC-PM (the Hawaadle clan's militia), Abdille Osooble Siyaad, to Hargeysa for consultations, the SNA and its allies have taken a negative attitude to the conference. While no evidence for this has yet been produced, some commentators have suggested that the Idagalle fighters received direct support from SNA or its allies. In particular the delegation of the former Somaliland president, Abdirahman "Tuur", who remains in Mogadishu to attend Aydiid's upcoming peace conference, have been mentioned as likely to be behind such support.

SOMALIA STALEMATE: NEITHER PEACE NOR WAR
By Alex Belida

Voice of America (Mogadishu, November 19) - There are fresh fears that factional fighting may erupt in Somalia between rival militias, especially as UN peacekeeping forces prepare to leave the country. But some Somalis feel a political stalemate between the top leaders vying for power could result in what they describe as a state of no war, no peace in the immediate months ahead.

The head of one of the few international relief agencies still active in Mogadishu says his organization is preparing for the worst while hoping for the best. The worst is a new round of factional fighting between the main rivals for power in this battle-scarred city, General Mohamed Farah Aideed and Ali Mahdi Mohamed. The best is a genuine peace agreement between the two men and the formation of an interim government, Somalia's first in more than three years.

But a long-time resident of the Somali capital says that while fighting is possible, a political settlement appears almost out of the question. He believes a more likely scenario for the months ahead is that Mogadishu will remain in a state of no war but no real peace either. And he says that is a disturbing prospect because, in his words, it means we're back to square one, no better off than we were before the international community intervened here militarily nearly two years ago.

The UN peacekeeping force in Somalia, which now numbers some 15,000 soldiers, is preparing to pull out, their withdrawal the result of the Security Council's disappointment about the inability of Somali faction leaders to resolve their differences.

Some UN and private relief organizations have urged UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros Ghali to keep troops in the country to secure key air and seaports after the March 31st withdrawal deadline. But diplomats say there is little likelihood that will happen.

Somali sources say they fear that is almost certain to mean a rapid decline in humanitarian programs as worried relief workers pull out. They say it is also likely to mean that what little international economic activity has sprung up over the past two years will grind to a halt. They say that in Mogadishu, for example, the withdrawal of UN forces means the seaport will no longer function. General Aideed's forces are likely to take control of the facility. But businessmen say Mr. Ali Mahdi's loyalists, who control key access routes to the port, will be able to close it easily.

In recent weeks, General Aideed's prospects for assuming power in Mogadishu and ultimately in Somalia appeared on the rise. His decision to defy the United Nations and his political rivals by staging a reconciliation conference to form a government gave him what one Somali observer described as a sense of unstoppable momentum at a time when no one else was making any moves at all.

This coincided with claims by some foreign diplomats that Mr. Ali Mahdi was under mounting pressure to reach an accommodation with General Aideed if he hoped to have any influence at all after the departure of UN forces.

But Somali sources say the image of confidence and strength General Aideed projected was exaggerated and, perhaps more importantly, offensive to many Somalis, including some of his supporters. It rekindled fears that an Aideed-led government would be a military dictatorship.

Moreover, Mr. Ali Mahdi's vow to form his own government if General Aideed went ahead with his own plans, plus the opposition of some other key Somali leaders to the general's ambitions, undercut his credibility severely. Somali sources say the Aideed-organized reconciliation conference, after its highly-publicized start at the beginning of this month, has begun to fizzle out, raising fears in recent days that the continuing political stalemate could prompt new fighting.

No one can say for certain what will happen in the weeks ahead or when UN peacekeeping units finally do withdraw early next year. Somali and foreign observers alike say one thing seems apparent, the prospects for a genuine reconciliation between the country's faction leaders, especially General Aideed and Mr. Ali Madhi, remain just as remote as ever, and that cannot bode well for the Somali people.

SNU-COMMENT: A source in the US State Department, who has requested to remain anonymous, tells Somalia News Update that Aideed's current ambition to form a government was preceeded by attempts to buy out Ali Mahdi by offering him "retirement" in another country. While Special Representative Victor Gbeho remains impressed by the so- called peace process and the futile attempts to form a central government, at least one UN branch agency is currently entertaining plans to help form regional governments within a federal system once UNOSOM has left the country. Aideed's ambition towards a "government" seems little more than an attempt to cement his new alliance by offering ministerial seats to recently arrived supporters.

MOGADISHU GETS READY FOR YET ANOTHER WAR
By Alex Belida

Voice of America (Mogadishu, November 19) - With UN troops on their way out of Somalia and peaceful reconciliation between rival factions still as distant and seemingly unlikely prospects, some Somalis say they fear a new round of bloody street fighting is about to erupt in Mogadishu.

Knowledgeable Somalis on both sides of the infamous green line that divides Mogadishu say they are now seeing what they consider tell-tale signs of eminent warfare between militia loyal to the two men vying for power in the capital and the nation. General Mohamed Farah Aideed and Ali Madhi Mohamed.

Ironically, these signs include things that would normally be viewed as symbols of calm, such as a recent exchange of letters between General Aideed and Mr. Ali Mahdi in which they call one another "my brother" and make appeals for reconciliation in the interest of the Somali people. Such letters, the sources charge, are utter hypocrisy, especially when balanced against recent evidence that forces loyal to both men are now rearming in earnest.

Other signs include cessation of harsh rhetoric on the rivals radio, and what to these Somali sources say is an equally ominous halt to the sporadic violence that has racked Mogadishu off and on in recent weeks. These sources say these are usually indications of a tightening of discipline among the rank and file of the militia.

They also say many of General Aideed's forces and their heavy weapons have apparently been withdrawn to positions south of the capital, where it is feared they may be making final plans and organizing themselves for a new assault on Mr. Ali Mahdi's strongholds in the north of the city.

These sources call the situation profoundly depressing, especially since they believe the international community, which intervened in Somalia two years ago and tried to promote genuine reconciliation, is almost certain to turn its back on the country in the event of a new round of civil warfare. UN peacekeeping forces in Somalia, now numbering about 15-thousand, are beginning to pull out and will all be gone by the end of March. These days they do little more than protect themselves within their own compound.

The only hope these Somali sources see in the prospect of renewed fighting is a perverse one: that the wide-scale suffering likely to ensue may be the only way to bring about the kind of lasting political settlement that has eluded Somalia thus far.

In the meantime, though, they say those who can afford are again sending their families abroad and making plans to leave themselves, recognizing that this time they may never return.

ESCORT SERVICES OFFERED: US TROOPS HEADING BACK TO SOMALIA?

Somalia News Update (Uppsala, November 15) - Although no formal decision has yet been made, the Clinton White House is currently contemplating to dispatch a small military force back to Somalia.The United States, which abandoned Somalia last March after 18 Army Rangers were killed in Mogadishu, is reportedly being pressured by other Western powers who want protection for the UN peacekeepers in Somalia who are expected to withdraw from Somalia by March. Britain, France and Italy made commitments to provide security during the pull-out but US Ambassador Daniel Simpson said in Nairobi that no decision has been made regarding a future US military involvement in Somalia. Although the new Republican-controlled Congress may oppose further American involvement in Somalia, the real-politik of getting US troops out of Haiti may require US troops to be redeployed in Somalia as a sign of good faith to other major Western powers. The issue of redeploying US troops in Somalia was also mentioned in a recent edition of the US Army Times.

A former UNOSOM employee told Somalia News Update that one reason behind UNOSOM's attempts to have their mandate in Somalia extended was the fears of the military commander, General Aboo, who is afraid for the safety of his troops. Following the Security Council's decision last month to abort the UN mission by March 31, the logistics of the withdrawal have assumed an acute importance. The type of military support expected to be furnished by the US will most likely be air surveillance and off-shore fire power.

WHERE WILL SIYAD BARRE GO?

Somalia News Update (Uppsala, November 22) - A broad range of rumours in Somali exile circles currently has it that [Mohammed] Siyad Barre, Somalia's former dictator, is heading back to the Horn of Africa from Nigeria where he has been staying since 1991. According to the rumours, Siyad's current Nigerian hosts are unwilling to see his stay there prolonged and he is therefore seeking to go to Eritrea, the home of his son-in-law and former cabinet official Mr. Ahmed Saleebaan Dafle. An official at the Eritrean embassy in Stockholm, Mr. Jonas Mana, told Somalia News Update that the rumour comes as a surprise to him and that it at present is "impossible to deny or confirm these allegations."

HARGEYSA GOES TO WAR!

Somalia News Update (Uppsala, November 21) - Fighting erupted in the capital of the self-proclaimed Somaliland Republic last week. A government declaration describes the events as triggered by the same gang of ex-SNM militias that controlled the Hargeysa airport until government troops regained control of the airport in October.

The rebel group, most of whom come from the Idagalle sub-clan, regrouped some 50 kilometres from Hargeysa, close to the Ethiopian border. From their camp they started mounting armed incursions into neighbouring civilian areas. On Monday, November 12, government forces attacked and captured the camp and all the ordinance of the militia group with it. Also fourteen artillery pieces, one "technical" and two trucks were captured in the camp. The group then fled with their remaining six vehicles mounted with various heavy guns.

Pursued by government forces, at least two rebel vehicles entered Hargeysa where they reportedly opened fire on a crowd at a busy market and attempted to rob a bank.

The government declaration admitted that the rebels rapidly gained an upper hand in the Hargeysa fighting but accredit this to the restraint displayed by government forces in order not to jeapordize civilian lives. Despite such efforts at least 60 to 70 civilians are estimated to have been killed in the fighting.

On Wednesday last week Hargeysa was reported calm but telecommunication lines remained unreliable throughout the weekend. The rebels are said to have received some support from the local community in Hargeysa but it is unknown to what extent and from what clans. Two days after the first fighting at the rebel camp, Idagalle elders published an invitation for a conference in the independent Hargeysa newspaper Xoriya.

At present, government troops are said to be conducting search operations throughout Hargeysa in order to capture hidden rebels and confiscate their weapons.

SNU-COMMENT: It is difficult not to seek to connect the fighting with President Egal's recent invitation to the southern Somali factions to attend a peace conference in Hargeysa. While the SSA factions have responded positively to this and recently sent the chairman of USC-PM (the Hawaadle clan's militia), Abdille Osooble Siyaad, to Hargeysa for consultations, the SNA and its allies have taken a negative attitude to the conference. While no evidence for this has yet been produced, some commentators have suggested that the Idagalle fighters received direct support from SNA or its allies. In particular the delegation of the former Somaliland president, Abdirahman "Tuur", who remains in Mogadishu to attend Aydiid's upcoming peace conference, have been mentioned as likely to be behind such support.

SOMALIA STALEMATE: NEITHER PEACE NOR WAR
By Alex Belida

Voice of America (Mogadishu, November 19) - There are fresh fears that factional fighting may erupt in Somalia between rival militias, especially as UN peacekeeping forces prepare to leave the country. But some Somalis feel a political stalemate between the top leaders vying for power could result in what they describe as a state of no war, no peace in the immediate months ahead.

The head of one of the few international relief agencies still active in Mogadishu says his organization is preparing for the worst while hoping for the best. The worst is a new round of factional fighting between the main rivals for power in this battle-scarred city, General Mohamed Farah Aideed and Ali Mahdi Mohamed. The best is a genuine peace agreement between the two men and the formation of an interim government, Somalia's first in more than three years.

But a long-time resident of the Somali capital says that while fighting is possible, a political settlement appears almost out of the question. He believes a more likely scenario for the months ahead is that Mogadishu will remain in a state of no war but no real peace either. And he says that is a disturbing prospect because, in his words, it means we're back to square one, no better off than we were before the international community intervened here militarily nearly two years ago.

The UN peacekeeping force in Somalia, which now numbers some 15,000 soldiers, is preparing to pull out, their withdrawal the result of the Security Council's disappointment about the inability of Somali faction leaders to resolve their differences.

Some UN and private relief organizations have urged UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros Ghali to keep troops in the country to secure key air and seaports after the March 31st withdrawal deadline. But diplomats say there is little likelihood that will happen.

Somali sources say they fear that is almost certain to mean a rapid decline in humanitarian programs as worried relief workers pull out. They say it is also likely to mean that what little international economic activity has sprung up over the past two years will grind to a halt. They say that in Mogadishu, for example, the withdrawal of UN forces means the seaport will no longer function. General Aideed's forces are likely to take control of the facility. But businessmen say Mr. Ali Mahdi's loyalists, who control key access routes to the port, will be able to close it easily.

In recent weeks, General Aideed's prospects for assuming power in Mogadishu and ultimately in Somalia appeared on the rise. His decision to defy the United Nations and his political rivals by staging a reconciliation conference to form a government gave him what one Somali observer described as a sense of unstoppable momentum at a time when no one else was making any moves at all.

This coincided with claims by some foreign diplomats that Mr. Ali Mahdi was under mounting pressure to reach an accommodation with General Aideed if he hoped to have any influence at all after the departure of UN forces.

But Somali sources say the image of confidence and strength General Aideed projected was exaggerated and, perhaps more importantly, offensive to many Somalis, including some of his supporters. It rekindled fears that an Aideed-led government would be a military dictatorship.

Moreover, Mr. Ali Mahdi's vow to form his own government if General Aideed went ahead with his own plans, plus the opposition of some other key Somali leaders to the general's ambitions, undercut his credibility severely. Somali sources say the Aideed-organized reconciliation conference, after its highly-publicized start at the beginning of this month, has begun to fizzle out, raising fears in recent days that the continuing political stalemate could prompt new fighting.

No one can say for certain what will happen in the weeks ahead or when UN peacekeeping units finally do withdraw early next year. Somali and foreign observers alike say one thing seems apparent, the prospects for a genuine reconciliation between the country's faction leaders, especially General Aideed and Mr. Ali Madhi, remain just as remote as ever, and that cannot bode well for the Somali people.

SNU-COMMENT: A source in the US State Department, who has requested to remain anonymous, tells Somalia News Update that Aideed's current ambition to form a government was preceeded by attempts to buy out Ali Mahdi by offering him "retirement" in another country. While Special Representative Victor Gbeho remains impressed by the so- called peace process and the futile attempts to form a central government, at least one UN branch agency is currently entertaining plans to help form regional governments within a federal system once UNOSOM has left the country. Aideed's ambition towards a "government" seems little more than an attempt to cement his new alliance by offering ministerial seats to recently arrived supporters.

MOGADISHU GETS READY FOR YET ANOTHER WAR
By Alex Belida

Voice of America (Mogadishu, November 19) - With UN troops on their way out of Somalia and peaceful reconciliation between rival factions still as distant and seemingly unlikely prospects, some Somalis say they fear a new round of bloody street fighting is about to erupt in Mogadishu.

Knowledgeable Somalis on both sides of the infamous green line that divides Mogadishu say they are now seeing what they consider tell-tale signs of eminent warfare between militia loyal to the two men vying for power in the capital and the nation. General Mohamed Farah Aideed and Ali Madhi Mohamed.

Ironically, these signs include things that would normally be viewed as symbols of calm, such as a recent exchange of letters between General Aideed and Mr. Ali Mahdi in which they call one another "my brother" and make appeals for reconciliation in the interest of the Somali people. Such letters, the sources charge, are utter hypocrisy, especially when balanced against recent evidence that forces loyal to both men are now rearming in earnest.

Other signs include cessation of harsh rhetoric on the rivals radio, and what to these Somali sources say is an equally ominous halt to the sporadic violence that has racked Mogadishu off and on in recent weeks. These sources say these are usually indications of a tightening of discipline among the rank and file of the militia.

They also say many of General Aideed's forces and their heavy weapons have apparently been withdrawn to positions south of the capital, where it is feared they may be making final plans and organizing themselves for a new assault on Mr. Ali Mahdi's strongholds in the north of the city.

These sources call the situation profoundly depressing, especially since they believe the international community, which intervened in Somalia two years ago and tried to promote genuine reconciliation, is almost certain to turn its back on the country in the event of a new round of civil warfare. UN peacekeeping forces in Somalia, now numbering about 15-thousand, are beginning to pull out and will all be gone by the end of March. These days they do little more than protect themselves within their own compound.

The only hope these Somali sources see in the prospect of renewed fighting is a perverse one: that the wide-scale suffering likely to ensue may be the only way to bring about the kind of lasting political settlement that has eluded Somalia thus far.

In the meantime, though, they say those who can afford are again sending their families abroad and making plans to leave themselves, recognizing that this time they may never return.

____________________________________________________________________
SNU is an entirely independent newsletter devoted to critical analysis of the political and humanitarian developments in Somalia and Somaliland. SNU is edited and published by Dr. Bernhard Helander, Uppsala University, Sweden.

____________________________________________________________________

Message-Id: <199411220852.DAA08770@stanley.cis.Brown.EDU>
Date: Tue, 22 Nov 1994 09:59:30 +0100
From: Bernhard Helander 
Subject: Somalia News Update, No 26

Editor: Ali B. Ali-Dinar

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