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Department of Earth and Environmental ScienceSymposium: Responses, Risks and Adaptation to Climate ChangeStudent Poster SessionDate: May 1, 2009
LIST OF PRESENTERS:
ABSTRACTS: 1. Frank Anderson (Earth and Environmental Science)Title: Is climate change facilitating amphibian decline in Puerto Rico? Faculty advisor: Fred Scatena Abstract: A temperature history from 15 daily recording climate stations in North East Puerto Rico has been constructed from all NCDC and LTER: Luquillo temperature recording sites. Of those stations 11 have shown temperature increases daily Tmax, 4 show decreases or no change (one of these decreases, Bislay, only covers 2000-2007); Only 13 sites recorded Tmin, of those 8 were increasing, 2 remained level, and 3 decreased. The sites vary in the magnitude and rates of temperature change, but areas of similar characteristics (specifically elevation and degree of urbanization) show similar trends. Globally, amphibians are facing a mass extinction. Possible causes for the decline included alien pathogens and human activity. Climate change is now being considered one of the stresses leading to the declines of climate sensitive populations. Some species of endemic amphibian populations of Puerto Rico are experiencing declines, while other species are showing resilience to human impact. Generally, higher elevation frogs are seeing more extinctions and declines, which is interesting considering in North East Puerto Rico higher elevation sites are less developed than the coastal plain. 2. Emma Aronson (Biology) Title: Ammonium nitrate effects on methane flux in temperate forest soil Faculty advisor: Brent Helliker Abstract: Methane (CH4) is an important greenhouse gas. Labile nitrogen (N) availability is known to impact methane flux; in laboratory conditions, large amounts of ammonium inhibit methane oxidation by methanotrophs by binding to their oxygenase enzyme receptors in place of CH4. Recent research on the effects of in situ environmental factors on methane has found that small amounts of nitrogen often stimulating methane uptake by soil too quickly to be explained by microbial community shifts. One hypothesis for this unexpected, observed response is that the ratio of available N to CH4 in the soil, when given sufficient oxygen, will determine whether CH4 uptake is inhibited or augmented by additional N. When the ratio of available N to CH4 is low, added N may be used by methanotrophs to metabolize available methane. Once the ratio of available N to CH4 is high, any additional ammonium will lead to decreased methane uptake. 3. Yael Bortnick (Earth and Environmental Science) Title: Seward's melting icebox: Climate change and public policy in Alaska Faculty advisor: Sabrina McCormick Abstract: This study sampled 130 Alaskans via a telephone survey between February and April 2009 to determine if Alaskans support climate change policies and what factors predict this support. Alaska was chosen as impacts of climate change are already visible across the state, and this was hypothesized to affect how citizens view policies. The purpose of this study was to compare the results to previous national studies to see if there is a difference in how people who are already faced with realities of climate change view adaptation and mitigation policies. The majority of Alaskans are certain that global warming is happening and that it is primarily caused by human activity. Furthermore, they believe that global warming is already affecting Alaska, and that the affect will be serious in nature before the year 2020. However, Alaskans have little confidence in state politicians and they believe they are not doing enough to address the effects of climate change in the state. Indeed, the majority of Alaskans support climate change policies. Unlike in national samples, general policy support in Alaska cannot be predicted by demographic variables. Factors which influence overall policy support among Alaskans are related to world views, such as political ideology and religious affiliation, and beliefs about climate change, such as what one believes is the primary cause of global warming and whether one believes he will be personally affected. 4. Lauren Cowen (Earth and Environmental Science) Title: Public health implications of anthropogenic climate change: Air pollution, pollen and asthma Faculty advisor: Edward Emmett Abstract: The prevalence of asthma has been growing at a rapid rate in recent years and may be linked to large scale global industrialization and urbanization. Asthma research and prevention has primarily focused on indoor triggers. However, in light of current anthropogenic climate change concerns, it is important to consider the impact of ambient allergens/irritants (i.e. pollen and air pollution) on the incidence and exacerbation of asthma. Given that air pollution is the one variable that can be directly influenced by human efforts and there is evidence of reversibility in its relationship with airway inflammation, I performed background research on air pollution regulation policy for U.S. (representing a developed and democratic country) and China (representing a developing and communist country) to better understand the current situation and opportunities for policy change. Because pollen and air pollution vary by region, Atlanta and Beijing were chosen as more specific areas for case studies. 5. Simon Engelhart (Earth and Environmental Science) Title: Spatial variability in 20th century US Atlantic coast sea level rise Faculty advisor: Ben Horton Abstract: The first analysis of a quality-controlled late Holocene database of geological observations of sea level for the US Atlantic Coast provides accurate estimates of current land-level changes. Maximum subsidence occurs along the mid Atlantic Coast between Massachusetts and Maryland (0.8 - 1.8 mm yr-1), with lower rates north to Maine (0.5 - 0.7 mm yr-1), and south to South Carolina (0.5 - 1 mm yr-1). Decontaminating tide gauge records along the US Atlantic Coast with observations of subsidence documents a 20th century rate of sea level rise of 1.81 - 0.16 mm yr-1. A compelling increase of 20th century sea level rise from north to south, independent of glacial isostatic adjustment, suggests a possible contribution from Greenland mass balance and/or ocean steric effects. 6. Megan Folz (ENVS 312 – Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics) Title: Ocean carbonate chemistry and impact on pteropods Faculty advisor: Irina Marinov Abstract: The oceanic absorption of CO2 increases the oceans' acidity and decreases CO32-, making it harder for some organisms to survive. One such organism is the pteropod. Using Ca2+ and CO32- from the water, they form calcium carbonate shells in the form of aragonite which is the more soluble form of calcium carbonate. As CO2 ocean uptake increases, CO32- concentration decreases which decreases shell formation at the surface. More CO2 uptake makes calcium carbonate forming organisms more susceptible to dissolution at shallower depths. Making a transect across the Pacific ocean from Hawaii to San Francisco, we collected pteropods down to 150m depth using oblique tows with meter nets. Water samples were collected from depths of 500m to the surface in order to look at pH, alkalinity and carbonate concentrations of the water. Our results show that pteropod diversity decreases in cooler, lower CO32- waters, although the number of individuals increased. We saw an increase in the number of L. inflata, as carbonate concentration decreased from greater than 250μmol/kg near Hawaii, to less than 100μmol/kg in the northeastern Pacific. It is possible that carbonate concentration decreased because of an increase in CO2 absorption in the cooler waters. 7. Lena Gieschen (Biology) Title: Modeling oceanic CO2 uptake: The relevance of zooplankton grazing Faculty advisors: Joshua Plotkin, Andreas Oschlies (IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany) Abstract: Photosynthesis in marine phytoplankton reduces surface ocean CO2, thus stimulating oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2. The magnitude of this CO2 transfer is difficult to quantify and requires understanding the corresponding plankton dynamics. Hitherto, various biogeochemical models have been developed to simulate these dynamics. Many of them properly represent the dynamics of the region for which they were originally developed, but, owing to differences among plankton communities, perform poorly when applied to a fundamentally different region. In the presented study, various types of zooplankton grazing are implemented in a plankton model, accounting for the fundamental sensitivity of biogeochemical models to the grazing formulation. Subsequently, the model is applied to three fundamentally different regions in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. One of the grazing functions allows for accurately simulating the plankton dynamics of all three regions, suggesting that understanding zooplankton grazing is essential to modeling oceanic uptake of CO2. 8. Itay Greenspan & Cassondra Giombetti (School of Social Policy and Practice and Graduate School of Education) Title: Environmental concerns, environmental knowledge, and perceptions about climate change of students and staff at the University of Pennsylvania Faculty advisor: Femida Handy (School of Social Policy and Practice) Abstract: Concerns over environmental issues are growing among Americans. Climate change has received significant media and public attention from among those environmental concerns. This poster presents findings from a survey conducted in summer 2008 among staff and students at the University of Pennsylvania. We aim to understand whether these concerns are being translated into action on behalf of the environment, or in other words whether higher concerns are related to more pro-environmental behavior. The survey goal was to better understand the levels of concerns individuals hold regarding environmental issues in general and climate change in particular. We are also asking whether these concerns are translated into action – volunteering and donating money to environmental organizations, and other pro-environmental behaviors. 9. Andrew Kemp (Earth and Environmental Science) Title: Reconstructions of relative sea-level variations over the last two millennia, North Carolina, USA Faculty advisor: Benjamin P. Horton Abstract: Accurate estimates of sea-level rise in the pre-satellite era are necessary to provide an appropriate context for scenarios of 21st century change. We reconstruct relative sea level (RSL) from two sites in coastal North Carolina for the last 2000 years using composite chronologies and foraminifera preserved in salt-marsh sedimentary sequences. Agreement among these reconstructions and recent instrumental (tide gauge) data validates the approach. We decontaminated the RSL records by removing a background rate of subsidence (0.95mm/yr ±0.15mm) associated with ongoing glacio isostatic adjustment. We investigate if the recent rate of rise is anomalous during the past 1500 years. A Medieval period associated with warmer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere is identified in North Carolina by sea-level rise no greater than 1mm/yr between AD 800 and AD 1300. Cooler climate conditions between AD 1300 and the end of the 19th century are coincident with a period of stable sea level. Accelerated sea-level rise (2.2mm/yr above background rates) began at the end of the 19th century and appears to be unprecedented during the last 2000 years. 10. David Lin (ENVS 312 – Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics) Title: Stock returns and the weather: El Nino and the sunshine effect Faculty advisor: Irina Marinov Abstract: Using research drawn from environmental science and behavioral finance, this poster shows how El Nino Southern Oscillation events can affect stock market returns via the “sunshine effect”. Recent advancements in behavioral finance suggest that investor optimism and risk tolerance are influenced by mood. On sunny days, investors may mis-attribute good moods to favorable life prospects rather than sunshine and become more inclined to buy securities, a phenomenon known as the sunshine effect. Sunny weather is thus positively correlated with stock returns and cloudy weather is negatively correlated. El Nino events significantly affect weather patterns in countries on the Pacific Rim; in particular, Australia and Indonesia experience unusual dryness whereas Ecuador and Peru are unseasonably wet. By extension, one may infer that EL Nino can influence stock prices in these countries by altering the number of sunny days. This relationship suggests that affected markets like the Jakarta and Peruvian Stock Exchanges should correspondingly experience greater and lesser than average stock returns during years with ENSO events. 11. Raleigh Martin (Earth and Environmental Science) Title: Wind-blown sand dunes as a record of climate Faculty advisor: Douglas Jerolmack Abstract: Active production of aeolian (wind-blown) sand dunes is observed in arid regions where moisture and vegetation are insufficient to prevent the erosive force of winds. Buried aeolian deposits thus record periods of arid climate. In this poster, I review two examples of a climate record in dunes. The Nebraska Sand Hills is a region of vegetation-stabilized dunes in Nebraska. Stratigraphic studies of interdune deposits record alternating wet and dry periods during the past 10,000 years. The White Sands dunefield in southern New Mexico contains actively moving gypsum sand dunes produced by the deflation of Lake Otero, a large evaporite basin. Fluctuations in sediment transport recorded in dune stratigraphy help to infer timing of climate-induced deflation events on Lake Otero that produced large pulses of sediment supply for dune formation. While these examples demonstrate the important connection between climate and aeolian dune formation and transport, current understanding of climate-dune interactions remains limited. 12. Kendra McKoy (ENVS 312 – Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics) Title: Sea level rise and global climate change Faculty advisor: Irina Marinov Abstract: Global climate change is expected to affect many of the processes that contribute to both global and relative sea level rise. The physical mechanisms that will become most important as the global temperatures rise are the thermal expansion of water in the ocean, and to a second degree, the transfer of water from land and frozen reservoirs into the ocean. Numerous models have predicted that the northeast coast of the United States will face faster increase in sea level than the global mean. Ocean circulation from the Gulf Stream will play a large role in this. The northeast coast of the U.S. and Pacific Islands are only two places of many that are susceptible to damaging effects from sea level rise. Major implications of increased sea level include loss of property due to hurricane and storm surge damage, lower GDP from tourism and business in coastal areas, and flooding of shoreline areas. 13. Emma Saunders (ENVS 312 – Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics) Title: Monsoonal system: Example of atmosphere-ocean interaction Faculty advisor: Irina Marinov Abstract: The seasonal shift in wind and in precipitation that occurs in the Asian region is a result of land-water heating differences, which create a land-water pressure gradient. During the summer, the resulting wind flows bring evaporated water from the ocean which condenses as it rises and falls as torrential rains, particularly south the Himalayan mountains. In this paper I will discuss the major mechanisms driving monsoonal winds and how these might change with future global warming. First of all, I will discuss the role of the albedo, snow cover and moisture content of the atmosphere in creating monsoons as well as the correlation between monsoons, ENSO events and the strength of the Indian Ocean Dipole. Each of these factors contributes to land-ocean temperature differences, therefore inducing perturbations to the regular distribution of surface pressures and wind patterns. 14. Zhicong Wang (School of Medicine) Title: Researching the Philadelphia Heatwave Preparedness Plan Faculty advisor: Sabrina McCormick Abstract: Over 6,200 hospitalizations and deaths occur from heat waves in the United States alone each year. Global climate change, especially that resulting from increased carbon dioxide emissions, may lead to an increased risk of heat waves across the United States and the world. In an effort to address heat-related morbidity and mortality, the City of Philadelphia instigated the first municipal heat-related action plan in response to the 1995 heat wave. But despite the amount of attention received from both the media and the government, the Philadelphia Heatwave Preparedness Plan has undergone little or no assessments for utility and efficacy. In a survey canvassing the entire city of Philadelphia, we found that only 37% of the city block captains, those in charge of implementing the plans, found the plan helpful in combating heat waves. In order to effectively combat heat waves, further investigation and government attention will be needed.15. Christopher Ward (ENVS 312 – Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics) Title: Desertification and climate change in the American West Faculty advisor: Irina Marinov Abstract: Desertification is not a new trend for the American Southwest; historical records dating back thousands of year show such periods of evapotranspiration superseding precipitation. Yet current climate trends, particularly anthropogenic-induced warming, will likely worsen conditions in this particularly vulnerable portion of the United States. Meteorological variability is high in the American Southwest, with rainfall primarily distributed in a bimodal fashion during the summer and winter months. Rainfall distribution is in turn dependent upon the sea surface temperature and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of the Eastern Pacific Ocean, with increases during El Nino periods and decreases during La Nina periods. Global warming has the potential to amplify the magnitude of ENSO events, thereby initiating intensified wet and dry periods. Prolonged droughts coupled with intensified land use change and urbanization in the region will only increase areas undergoing desertification. Precipitation in the American Southwest has decreased consistently in the last three decades, while temperatures in higher altitude regions where snowfall melt works to naturally recharge subterranean aquifers, has increased. Subsequently, these upper regions of snowfall have significantly diminished, and thus the effects of the projected severe droughts will be exacerbated as groundwater reserves will likely be unable to sustain impacted deserts. The poster session forms a part of the all-day symposium on "Responses, Risks, and Adaptation to Climate Change”. This event is sponsored by SASgov. Questions? Please contact Raleigh Martin (raleighm@sas.upenn.edu). |
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Department of Earth and Environmental Science University of Pennsylvania, 254-b Hayden Hall, 240 South 33rd Street Philadelphia, PA 19104-6316 |
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