Event

Most studies of uncertainty in climate change focus on uncertainty in model simulations of properties driven by increasing atmospheric CO2. Rarely do investigators question the scenarios for increasing CO2 that drive the models.

There is less fossil fuel production available than many people believe. Global crude oil production has been on a plateau since 2005. Existing oil fields are in decline at about 5% per year. New production (mostly in the US) is just keeping place (so far). Net exports from oil exporting countries has been in decline since 2005. The idea of ‘peak oil’ – the notion that production will reach a peak and then decline – has been around for decades, with academics arguing about whether this peak has already passed or is yet to come. The typical industry response is to point to increasing assessments of global reserves – the amount known to be in the ground that can be produced commercially. Unfortunately “proven” reserves are not proven by anyone and appear to be inflated. It is far more sensible to look instead at actual production records, which are less encouraging. We are not running out of oil, but we are running out of oil that can be produced easily and cheaply. Changes in fossil fuel production and climate change are generally seen as entirely separate phenomena. But they are closely linked. The risk of fossil fuel supply limitation should be included when considering uncertainties of future climate change. The production rates of oil required to achieve the IPCC’s SRES scenarios will not be achieved.