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Rosina Bierbaum Office of Science and Technology, Washington, D.C. Preparing for an uncertain future: Laying the groundwork for decisions on climate change adaptation Abstract: Recent debates over climate change have centered on the potential costs and benefits of climate- change mitigation actions. Such focus is not inappropriate, given the difficulty of devising and implementing mitigation measures, and given the likely consequences of maintaining business-as- usual emissions trajectories over the next century. Unfortunately the issue of adaptation to climate change is often overlooked, yet the development of adaption strategies is one of the greatest near- term environmental challenges that faces the U.S. One of the clear implications of climate-change science is that some climate change in the 21st century is inevitable, due to the inertia of the climate system in responding to greenhouse gases that have been emitted over the last century. Current best estimates indicate that 1-2 degrees of warming is already in the pipeline, regardless of the effectiveness of mitigation measures in curtailing future greenhouse gas-emissions. Such increases in temperature will have consequences, and these consequences will vary by region across our country. The vulnerability of regions of the U.S., and of key environmental and economic sectors, is also varied. Incorporating the management of change into the existing suite of natural- resource management-strategies at local and regional levels is a necessity. Doing so will require us to conduct additional research and, even more important, to think about climate-change research in a new way by including local and regional information needs in the development of research agendas and assessments of research findings. The first U.S. national Assessment of climate change that is now under way is beginning this process, but sustained effort over the next several decades is needed. [ back ] |