Descriptive Theory of Probability

Neglect of base rates: cab problem (Tversky and Kahneman)

A cab was involved in a hit and run accident at night. Two cab companies, the Green and the Blue, operate in the city. You are given the following data:

* 85% of the cabs in the city are Green and 15% are Blue.

* A witness identified the cab as Blue. The court tested the reliability of the witness under the same circumstances that existed on the night of the accident and concluded that the witness correctly identified each one of the two colors 80% of the time and failed 20% of the time.

What is the probability that the cab involved in the accident was Blue rather than Green?

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Although the two companies are roughly equal in size, 85% of all cab accidents in the city involve Green cabs and 15% involve Blue cabs.

Bayes's Theorem calculation

(7)

                      p(D | H) * p(H)
p(H | D) = ---------------------------------------------
           [ p(D | H) * p(H) + p(D | not-H) * p(not-H) ]

                  .80 * .15            .12     .12
p(H | D) = ----------------------- = ------- = --- = .41
           [.80 * .15 + .20 * .85]   .12+.17   .29

Thus, p(H/D) is 12/(12+17), or .41.

Tom W.

Tom W. is of high intelligence, although lacking in true creativity. He has a need for order and clarity, and for neat and tidy systems in which every detail finds its appropriate place. His writing is rather dull and mechanical, occasionally enlivened by somewhat corny puns and by flashes of imagination of the sci-fi type. He has a strong drive for competence. He seems to have little feel and little sympathy for other people and does not enjoy interacting with others. Self-centered, he nonetheless has a deep moral sense.

Conjunction effect

Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.

Linda is a teacher in an elementary school.
Linda works in a bookstore and takes Yoga classes.
Linda is active in the feminist movement. [F]
Linda is a psychiatric social worker.
Linda is a member of the League of Women Voters.
Linda is a bank teller. [B]
Linda is an insurance salesperson.
Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. [B and F].

Agnoli (1991)

In summer at the beach are there more women or more tanned women?

People Women Tanned women

Gal and Baron (1996)

In one case, for example, a die was rolled and the task was to bet which color would be on top. A subject said, "Being the non-statistician I'd keep guessing red as there are 4 faces red and only 2 green. Then after a number of red came up in a row I'd figure, `it's probably time for a green,' and would predict green."

Another subject seemed aware of the independence of successive trials but still wanted to leave room for an intuitive attachment to a heuristic: "Even though the probability of Green coming up does not increase after several Red - I always have a feeling it will. Red is the safe bet but intuition will occasionally make me choose Green .... I know that my intuition has nothing to do with reality, but usually they coincide."

The hot hand

More extreme case: total neglect of probability
(Baron, Granato, Spranca, and Teubal, 1993)

Question: "Jennifer says that she heard of an accident where a car fell into a lake and a woman was kept from getting out in time because of wearing her seatbelt, and another accident where a seatbelt kept someone from getting out of the car in time when there was a fire. What do you think about this?"

A: Well, in that case I don't think you should wear a seat belt.
Q: How do you know when that's gonna happen?
A: Like, just hope it doesn't!
Q: So, should you or shouldn't you wear seat belts?
A: Well, tell-you-the-truth we should wear seat belts.
Q: How come?
A: Just in case of an accident. You won't get hurt as much as you will if you didn't wear a seat belt.
Q: OK, well what about these kinds of things, when people get trapped?
A: I don't think you should, in that case.

Another example of probability neglect

A: If you have a long trip, you wear seatbelts half way, ...
Q: Which is more likely?
A: That you'll go flyin' through the windshield ...
Q: Doesn't that mean you should wear them all the time?
A: No, it doesn't mean that.
Q: How do you know if you're gonna have one kind of accident or the other.
A: You don't know. You just hope and pray that you don't.

Hurricanes and the 2000 election

Subjective p(D|~H) is too low when the actual D is considered.

p(H) should be low, and the base rate may be ignored.

Availability effects in lethal events