- Actions (decisions, options)
- Goals (values, objectives)
- Beliefs
- Diagnosis
- Hypothesis testing
- Learning

- possibilities
- evidence
- goals

Getting into the war

Surge

A type of bypass operation would relieve his pain and increase his life expectancy from age 65 to age 70. However, 8% of the people who have this operation die from the operation itself.

His physician decided to go ahead with the operation. The operation succeeded.

Evaluate the physician's decision to go ahead with the operation.

Option 1. $200.

Option 2. An 80% chance of winning $300 and a 20% chance of winning nothing.

He must mail in his decision in advance, and he will be told the outcome of Option 2 whether he chooses it or not.`

Within-S transparent vs. within-S hidden vs. between-S

- Normative
- Standard for evaluation
- What is the right answer for this task? Why?
- Descriptive
- Psychological explanation of departure from normative
- Heuristics, strategies, mathematical models, perceptual principles, mental models
- "Bias" = systematic and non-normative
- Prescriptive
- Advice or prescription: heuristics, decision analysis
- Designed to increase evaluation by normative standard
- "Irrational" = departure from prescriptive?

- logic
- probability theory
- utility theory

Normative models are standards:

- Probability, statistics, utility theory

Descriptive models take several approaches:

- Heuristics, mental models, naive theories

Prescriptive models are addressed to different audiences:

- Decision makers, policy makers, teachers, programmers

Could you imagine a more accessible related problem?

64 -28 ---

Teacher: "You can't take 8 from 4, so ..."

Kye: "Oh, yes you can. 4 minus 8 is negative 4. And 40 and negative 4 give you 36."

64 -28 --- -4 40 --- 36

16 16+9=25 (counting out) + 9 --- 15I: So when we count we get 25 and when we do it this way we get 15. Is that okay to get two answers or do you think there should be only one?

S: (Shrugs his shoulders.)

I: Which one do you think is the best answer?

S: 25

I: Why?

S: I don't know.

I: If we had 16 cookies and 9 more, would we have 15 altogether?

S: No.

I: Why not?

S: Because if you counted them together you would get 25.

I: But is this (points to the answer of 15) right sometimes? or is it always wrong?

S: It's always right.

Perkins | Baron |
---|---|

structure | possibility |

purposes | goals |

arguments | evidence |

Insufficient search for alternative models

Heuristics

Naive theories

Failure to understand