Charles Loeffler

Jerry Lee Assistant Professor of Criminology
Department of Criminology
University of Pennsylvania

Email:, x=cloef
Address: 570 McNeil, 3718 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6286


My research examines measurement problems in criminology. Much of this work is focused on estimating the life-course consequences of contact with the criminal justice system. These consequences can include changes to the likelihood of employment, criminal recidivism, and mortality. I also work on developing measurement tools for difficult-to-observe criminal behaviors, such as illegal firearm use among community-supervised correctional populations.

Recent Papers


Seth Flaxman, Mike Chirico, Pau Pereira, Charles Loeffler, “Scalable high-resolution forecasting of sparse spatiotemporal events with kernel methods: a winning solution to the NIJ 'Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge'” [code].


Charles Loeffler and Seth Flaxman, “Is Gun Violence Contagious?” Journal of Quantitative Criminology [code].

Michael Chirico, Robert Inman, Charles Loeffler, John MacDonald, Holger Sieg, “Procrastination and Property Tax Compliance: Evidence from a Field Experiment” NBER Working Paper

Charles Loeffler and Aaron Chalfin, “Estimating the Crime Effects of Raising the Age of Majority: Evidence from Connecticut” Criminology and Public Policy


Simone Ispa-Landa and Charles Loeffler, “Indefinite punishment and the criminal-record: Stigma reports among expungement-seekers in Illinois” Criminology


Charles Loeffler and Ben Grunwald, “Decriminalizing Delinquency: The Effect of Raising the Age of Majority on Juvenile Recidivism” Journal of Legal Studies

Michael Chirico, Robert Inman, Charles Loeffler, John MacDonald, and Holger Sieg, “An Experimental Evaluation of Notification Strategies to Increase Property Tax Compliance: Free-Riding in the City of Brotherly Love” Tax Policy and the Economy