Thompson J.

Variation in Susceptibility to Hurricane Damage as a Function of Storm Intensity in Puerto Rican Tree Species

Canham, Charles D.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Uriarte, Maria. 2010 Variation in Susceptibility to Hurricane Damage as a Function of Storm Intensity in Puerto Rican Tree Species. Biotropica, 42 (1). 87-94. 10.1111/j.1744-7429.2009.00545.x

Abstract: 
One of the most significant challenges in developing a predictive understanding of the long-term effects of hurricanes on tropical forests is the development of quantitative models of the relationships between variation in storm intensity and the resulting severity of tree damage and mortality. There have been many comparative studies of interspecific variation in resistance of trees to wind damage based on aggregate responses to individual storms. We use a new approach, based on ordinal logistic regression, to fit quantitative models of the susceptibility of a tree species to different levels of damage across an explicit range of hurricane intensity. Our approach simultaneously estimates both the local intensity of the storm within a plot and the susceptibility to storm damage of different tree species within plots. Using the spatial variation of storm intensity embedded in two hurricanes (Hugo in 1989 and Georges in 1998) that struck the 16 ha Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot in eastern Puerto Rico, we show that variation in susceptibility to storm damage is an important aspect of life history differentiation. Pioneers such as Cecropia schreberiana are highly susceptible to stem damage, while the late successional species Dacryodes excelsa suffered very little stem damage but significant crown damage. There was a surprisingly weak relationship between tree diameter and the susceptibility to damage for most of the 12 species examined. This may be due to the effects of repeated storms and trade winds on the architecture of trees and forest stands in this Puerto Rican subtropical wet forest.

Natural disturbance and human land use as determinants of tropical forest dynamics: results from a forest simulator

Uriarte, M., C. D. Canham, J. Thompson, J. K. Zimmerman,
L. Murphy, A. M. Sabat, N. Fetcher, and B. L.
Haines. 2009. Natural disturbance and human land
use as determinants of tropical forest dynamics:
results from a forest simulator. Ecological Monographs
79:423–443.

Abstract: 
Forests are often subject to multiple, compounded disturbances, representing both natural and human-induced processes. Predicting forest dynamics requires that we consider how these disturbances interact to affect species demography. Here we present results of an individual-based, spatially explicit forest simulator that we developed to analyze the compounded effects of hurricane disturbance and land use legacies on the dynamics of a subtropical forest. We used data from the 16-ha Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot in Puerto Rico, together with a reconstruction of historical wind damage, to parameterize the simulator. We used the model to ask two questions. (1) What are the implications of variation in hurricane frequency and severity for the long-term dynamics of forest composition, diversity, and structure? Both storm severity and frequency had striking effects on forest dynamics, composition, and structure. The periodicity of disturbance also played an important role, with periods of high hurricane activity fostering the establishment of species that may become rare in the absence of severe storms and quiescent periods allowing these species to reach reproductive size. Species responses to hurricane disturbance could not be predicted from their life history attributes. However, species perceived to be primary forest species exhibited low temporal variation in abundance through the simulations. (2) How do hurricanes and legacies from human land use interact to determine community structure and composition? Our results suggest that, over time, regardless of the storm regime, land use legacies will become less apparent but will lead to a forest community that contains a mixture of secondary and primary forest species formerly dominant in areas of different land use. In the long term, hurricane disturbance generated two communities with slightly greater similarity than those not subject to storms. Thus, the inclusion of hurricane disturbance does not alter the prediction that land use legacies in this tropical forest will diminish over time. Our simulations also highlight the contingent effects of human legacies on subsequent community dynamics, including the response to hurricane disturbance, therefore supporting the notion that compounded disturbances can interact in ways that cannot be predicted by the study of single disturbances. The widespread importance of land use as a large-scale disturbance makes it imperative that it be addressed as a fundamental ecological process.

Land Use History, Environment, and Tree Composition in a Tropical Forest

Thompson, Jill; Brokaw, Nicholas; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Waide, Robert B.; Everham, Edwin M. III; Lodge, D. Jean; Taylor, Charlotte M.; Garcia-Montiel, Diana; Fluet, Marcheterre 2002. Land use history, environment, and tree composition in a tropical forest. Ecological applications. Vol. 12, no. 5 (2002): pages 1344-1363.

Abstract: 
The effects of historical land use on tropical forest must be examined to understand present forest characteristics and to plan conservation strategies. We compared the effects of past land use, topography, soil type, and other environmental variables on tree species composition in a subtropical wet forest in the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico. The study involved stems > 10 cm diameter measured at 130 cm above the ground, within the 16-ha Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot (LFDP), and represents the forest at the time Hurricane Hugo struck in 1989. Topography in the plot is rugged, and soils are variable. Historical documents and local residents described past land uses such as clear-felling and selective logging followed by farming, fruit and coffee production, and timber stand improvement in the forest area that now includes the LFDP. These uses ceased 40-60 yr before the study, but their impacts could be differentiated by percent canopy cover seen in aerial photographs from 1936. Using these photographs, we defined four historic cover classes within the LFDP. These ranged from cover class 1, the least tree-covered area in 1936, to cover class 4, with the least intensive historic land use (selective logging and timber stand improvement). In 1989, cover class 1 had the lowest stem density and proportion of large stems, whereas cover class 4 had the highest basal area, species richness, and number of rare and endemic species. Ordination of tree species composition (89 species, 13 167 stems) produced arrays that primarily corresponded to the four cover classes (i.e., historic land uses). The ordination arrays corresponded secondarily to soil characteristics and topography. Natural disturbances (hurricanes, landslides, and local treefalls) affected tree composition, but these effects did not correlate with the major patterns of species distributions on the plot. Thus, it appears that forest development and natural disturbance have not masked the effects of historical land use in this tropical forest, and that past land use was the major influence on the patterns of tree composition in the plot in 1989. The least disturbed stand harbors more rare and endemic species, and such stands should be protected.
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