Puerto Rico is subject to frequent and severe impacts from hurricanes, whose long-term ecological role must be assessed on a scale of centuries. In this study we applied a method for reconstructing hurricane disturbance regimes developed in an earlier study of hurricanes in New England. Patterns of actual wind damage from historical records were analyzed for 85 hurricanes since European settlement in 1508. A simple meteorological model (HURRECON) was used to reconstruct the impacts of 43 hurricanes since 1851. Long-term effects of topography on a landscape scale in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF) were simulated with a simple topographic exposure model (EXPOS). Average return intervals across Puerto Rico for F0 damage (loss of leaves and branches) and F1 damage (scattered blowdowns, small gaps) on the Fujita scale were 4 and 6 years, respectively. At higher damage levels, a gradient was created by the direction of the storm tracks and the weakening of hurricanes over the interior mountains. Average return intervals for F2 damage (extensive blowdowns) and F3 damage (forests leveled) ranged from 15 to 33 years and 50 to 150 years, respectively, from east to west. In the LEF, the combination of steep topography and constrained peak wind directions created a complex mosaic of topographic exposure and protection, with average return intervals for F3 damage ranging from 50 years to .150 years. Actual forest damage was strongly dependent on land-use history and the effects of recent hurricanes. Annual and decadal timing of hurricanes varied widely. There was no clear centennial-scale trend in the number of major hurricanes over the historical period.

The forests and soils at Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF), Puerto Rico, are frequently disturbed by hurricanes occurring at various frequencies and intensities. We have derived a forest version of the Century soil organic matter model to examine the impact of hurricanes on soil nutrient availability and pool sizes, and forest productivity in the tabonuco forest at Luquillo. The model adequately predicted aboveground plant production, soil carbon, and soil nitrogen levels for forest conditions existing before Hurricane Hugo. Simulations of Hurricane Hugo and of an historical sequence of hurricanes indicated a complex pattern of recovery, especially for the first 10 yr after the hurricanes. After repeated hurricanes, forest biomass was reduced, while forest productivity was enhanced. Soil organic matter, and phosphorus and nitrogen mineralization stabilized at higher levels for the LEF than for hurricane-free tabonuco forest, and organic soil phosphorus was substantially increased by hurricanes. Results from these simulations should be regarded as hypotheses. At present there is insufficient data to validate the results of hurricane model simulations.

Actual evapotranspiration (aET) and related processes in tropical forests can explain 70% of the lateral global energy transport through latent heat, and therefore are very important in the redistribution of water on the Earth’s surface [Mauser, M., Scha¨dlich, S., 1998. Modelling the spatial distribution of evapotranspiration on different scales using remote sensing data. J. Hydrol. 212–213, 250–267]. Unfortunately, there are few spatial studies of these processes in tropical forests. This research integrates one Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) image and three Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images with a hydrological model [Granger, R.J., Gray, D.M., 1989. Evaporation from natural nonsaturated surfaces. J. Hydrol. 111, 21–29] to estimate the spatial pattern of aET over the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF) – a tropical forest in northeastern Puerto Rico – for the month of January, the only month that these remotely sensed images were acquired. The derived aETs ranged from 0 to 7.22 mm/day with a mean of 3.08 ± 1.35 mm/day which were comparable to other estimates. Simulated aET was highest in the low elevation forest and decreased progressively toward higher elevations. Because of differences in solar radiation at different elevations, aspects and topographic positions, aET tended to be higher on south slopes and along ridges than on north slopes and in valleys. In addition, the Bowen ratio (the ratio of sensible heat to latent heat) varied across different vegetation types and increased with elevation, thus reflecting differences in the distribution of net solar radiation incident on the earth’s surface. Over a day, the highest simulated aET occurred at around noon. We also applied this model to simulate the average monthly aET over an entire year based on the cloud patterns derived from at least two MODIS images for each month. The highest simulated aET occurred in February and March and the lowest in May. These observations are consistent with long term data. The simulated values were compared with field measurements of the sap flow velocity of trees at different elevations and in different forest types. These comparisons had good agreement in the low elevation forest but only moderate agreement in the elfin forest at high elevations. ª 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

At several localities around the world, thrust belts have developed on both sides of oceanic island arcs (e.g., Java-Timor, Panama, Vanuatu, and the northeastern Caribbean). In these localities, the overall vergence of the backarc thrust belt is opposite to that of the forearc thrust belt. For example, in the northeastern Caribbean, a north-verging accretionary prism lies to the north of the Eastern Greater Antilles arc (Hispaniola and Puerto Rico), whereas a south-verging thrust belt called the Muertos thrust belt lies to the south. Researchers have attributed such bivergent geometry to several processes, including: reversal of subduction polarity; subduction-driven mantle fl ow; stress transmission across the arc; gravitational spreading of the arc; and magmatic infl ation within the arc. New observations of deformational features in the Muertos thrust belt and of fault geometries produced in sandbox kinematic models, along with examination of published studies of island arcs, lead to the conclusion that the bivergence of thrusting in island arcs can develop without reversal of subduction polarity, without subarc mantle fl ow, and without magmatic infl ation. We suggest that the Eastern Greater Antilles arc and comparable arcs are simply crustalscale bivergent (or “doubly vergent”) thrust wedges formed during unidirectional subduction. Sandbox kinematic modeling suggests, in addition, that a broad retrowedge containing an imbricate fan of thrusts develops only where the arc behaves relatively rigidly. In such cases, the arc acts as a backstop that transmits compressive stress into the backarc region. Further, modeling shows that when arcs behave as rigid blocks, the strike-slip component of oblique convergence is accommodated entirely within the prowedge and the arc—the retrowedge hosts only dip-slip faulting (“frontal thrusting”). The existence of large retrowedges and the distribution of faulting in an island arc may, therefore, be evidence that the arc is relatively rigid. The rigidity of an island arc may arise from its mafi c composition and has implications for seismic-hazard analysis.