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Financial
Crises, Sovereign Default and Sudden Stops
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Tight Money-Tight Credit:
Coordination
Failure in the
Conduct of
Monetary and
Financial
Policies 
(with
Julio Carrillo,
Victoria Nuguer
& Jessica
Roldan, AEJ-Macroeconomics,
July 2021)
A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises:
Lessons from
the Sudden
Stops
Literature
(with
Javier Bianchi,
Review of
Economic
Dynamics,
2020)
FiPIt: A Simple,
Fast Global
Method for
Solving Models
with Two
Endogenous
States &
Occasionally
Binding
Constraints
(with
Sergio
Villalvazo, Review
of Economic
Dynamics,
2020)
Positive and Normative Implications of
Liability
Dollarization
for Sudden
Stops Models
of
Macroprudential
Policy
(with
Eugenio Rojas, IMF
Economic
Review,
March 2019)
Optimal, Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy
(with Javier
Bianchi, Journal
of Political
Economy,
November 2018, online appendix)
Optimal v. Simple Financial Policy Rules
in a
Production
Economy with
“Liability
Dollarization"
(with Juan
Hernandez, Ensayos
Sobre Política
Económica,
March 2017)
Fundamentals News, Global Liquidity and
Macroprudential
Policy
(with
Javier Bianchi
and Chenxin Liu,
Journal
of
International
Economics,
March 2016)
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The
Finnish
Great
Depression:
From
Russia
with Love
(with Yuriy
Goridnichenko and Linda
Tesar, American
Economic Review,
June 2012)
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Sudden
Stops,
Financial Crises and
Leverage
(American Economic
Review, Dec. 2010, lead
article)
|
|
Financial
Globalization, Financial Crises and
Contagion
(with Vincenzo Quadrini, Journal of
Monetary Economics, 2010)
|
|
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Quantitative
Implications of a Debt-Deflation Theory of
Sudden Stops and Asset Prices
(with Katherine A. Smith, Journal of
International Economics, September
2006) |
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Margin Calls,
Trading Cost, and Asset Prices in Emerging
Markets: The Financial Mechanics of the
'Sudden Stop' Phenomenon
(with Katherine A. Smith, extended
working paper version of the JIE paper) |
|
Are
Asset Price Guarantees Useful for Preventing
Sudden Stops?: A Quantitative Investigation
of the Globalization Hazard-Moral Hazard
Tradeoff
(with Ceyhun Bora Durdu, Journal of
International Economics, June 2006) |
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Lessons
from the Debt Deflation Theory of Sudden
Stops
(American Economic Review Papers &
Proceedings, May 2006) |
|
Real
Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of
Nontradables in Sudden-Stop Prone Economies
(Economia, Fall 2005) |
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On the
Instability of Variance Decompositions of
the Real Exchange Rate across Exchange Rate
Regimes: Evidence from Mexico & the
United States
(NBER working paper with details on the
variance analysis of real exchange rates
documented in the Economia, Fall 2005 article) |
|
Credit
Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open
Economies:An Equilibrium Business Cycle
Framework for Emerging Markets Crises
(with Cristina Arellano, Ch. 7 of Dynamic
Macroeconomic Analysis: Theory and Policy in
General Equilibrium ed. by S. Altug, J.
Chadha and C. Nolan, Cambridge U. Press, 2003,
working paper version)
|
|
Credit,
Prices and Crashes: Business Cycles with a
Sudden Stop
(Ch. 7 of Preventing Currency Crises in
Emerging Markets ed. by S. Edwards and
J. Frankel, NBER, U. of Chicago Press, 2002,
working paper version) |
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The
Benefits of Dollarization when Stabilization
Policy Lacks Credibility and Financial
Markets are Imperfect
(Journal of Money, Credit and
Banking, vol. 33, May 2001, working paper
version) |
|
Capital
Markets Crises and Economic Collapse in
Emerging Markets: An Informational Frictions
Approach
(with Guillermo A. Calvo, American Economic
Review, Papers & Proceedings, May
2000, working paper version) |
|
The
Business Cycles of Balance-of-Payments
Crises: A Revision of A Mundellian Framework
(with Martin Uribe, published in Money,
Capital Mobility, and Trade: Essays in Honor
of Robert A. Mundell, ed. by G. Calvo,
R. Dornbusch and M. Obstfeld, MIT Press,
Cambridge:MA, 2000, working paper version)
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Empirical
Puzzles of Chilean Stabilization Policy,
(Chile: Recent Policy Lessons and Emerging
Challenges, World Bank,1999)
(with Guillermo A. Calvo) |
|
Mexico's
balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a
death foretold (Journal of International
Economics, 1996)
(En Español: "La crisis de la balanza
de pagos de México: crónica de una muerte
anunciada," Economia
Mexicana, LVII 219 Enero-Marzo, 1997)
|
|
Petty
Crime and Cruel Punishment: Lessons from the
Mexican Debacle (AER, 1996)
(with Guillermo A. Calvo) |
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Fiscal Policy
|
|
History
Remembered: Optimal Sovereign Default on
Domestic and External Debt
(Journal of Monetary Economics,
January, 2021)
The
Public Debt Crisis of the United States (The Manchester
School, vol. 85, September, 2017)
What Is
a Sustainable Public Debt? (with Pablo
D'Erasmo and Jing Zhang, Handbook of
Macroeconomics, v.2B, Elsevier, 2016)
How
Big (Small) are Fiscal Multipliers? (with
Ethan Ilzetzki and Carlos Vegh, Journal of
Monetary Economics, March 2013)
Fiscal
Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt
Sustainability in Advanced Economies
(with Atish R. Ghosh, Jun I. Kim, Jonathan D.
Ostry, and Mahvash S. Qureshi, Economic Journal)
Public
Debt, Fiscal Solvency & Macroeconomic
Uncertainty in Latin America: The Cases of
Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico
(with Marcelo Oviedo, economia
mexicana,
v.XVIII, no. 2, 2009, pp.133-173)
International
Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal
Policy 'Responsible'?
(with Jonathan Ostry, Journal of
Monetary Economics, v.55, 2008, pp.
1081-1093 )
Why Hasn't Tax
Competition Triggered a Race to the Bottom?
Some Quantitative Lessons from the EU
(with Linda Tesar, Journal of
Monetary Economics, 2005, v. 52, p.
163-204, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on
Public Policy) |
|
A Quantitative
Analysis of Tax Competition V. Tax
Coordination under Perfect Capital Mobility
(NBER working paper of the first version
of the above paper) |
|
The
International Macroeconomics of Taxation and
the Case Against European Tax
Harmonization
(published in Economic Policy in the
International Economy, ed. by E. Helpman
and E. Sadka, Cambridge University Press, 2003,
working paper version) |
|
The
International Ramifications of Tax Reforms;
Supply-Side Economics in a Global Economy
(with Linda Tesar, American Economic
Review, 1998, v. 88, p. 226-245)
|
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On the
Ineffectiveness of Tax Policy in Altering
Long-Run Growth: Harberger's Superneutrality
Conjecture (with
Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and P. Asea, Journal of
Public Economics, 1997)
Estimates
for 18 OECD Countries, 1965-1992 used in
Mendoza, Milesi-Ferretti and Asea (JPubE
1997)
|
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Effective Tax
Rates in Macroeconomics: Cross Country
Estimates of Tax Rates on Factor Incomes and
Consumption (with Assaf Razin and Linda
Tesar, Journal
of Monetary Economics, 1994)
|
|
| Financial
Globalization |
|
|
|
Rational
Contagion and the Globalization of
Securities Markets
(with Guillermo A. Calvo, Journal of
International Economics, June 2000,
working paper version) |
|
The robustness
of macroeconomic indicators of capital
mobility
(in Capital
Mobility: The Impact on Consumption,
Investment and Growth, ed. by L.
Leiderman and A. Razin, Cambridge Univ. Press,
1994) |
|
Capital
Controls and the Gains from Trade in a
Business Cycle Model of a Small Open Economy
(IMF
Staff papers, 1991) |
|
| Real Business Cycle Models |
|
|
Devaluation
Risk and The Business Cycle Implications of
Exchange Rate Management (with Martin
Uribe)
(Carnegie Rochester Conference Series
on Public Policy, V. 53, 2001, working
paper version) |
|
Terms of
Trade Uncertainty and Economic Growth: Are
Risk Indicators Significant in Growth
Regressions
(Journal of Development Economics, 1997) |
|
The Terms of
Trade, The Real Exchange Rate and Economic
Fluctuations
(International Economic Review, 1995) |
|
Trade
Reforms of Uncertain Duration and Real
Uncertainty: A First Approximation
(with with Guillermo A. Calvo) (IMF Staff
Papers, 1994) |
|
Dynamic
Gains from North American Free Trade in an
Equilibrium Model of the Current Account
(North American Journal of Economics
& Finance, 1994) |
|
The
Balassa-Samuelson Model: A
General-Equilibrium Appraisal
(with Patrick K. Asea) (Review of
International Economics, 1994) |
|
The
Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks in a Basic
EquilibriumFramework
(IMF Staff Papers, 1992) |
|
Real
Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy
(American Economic Review, September
1991) |
|
| Articles in Spanish |
|
|
Porqué
las Economías Emergentes Deberian Renunciar
a las Monedas Nacionales: Un Caso para la
Sustitución de Instituciones?
(El Trimestre Económico v. LXXI (1), no.
281, Enero-Marzo 2004, versión en pruebas
tipográficas antes de edición final) |
|
La crisis de
la balanza de pagos de México: crónica de
una muerte anunciada
(Investigacion Económica, LVII 219
Enero-Marzo, 1997) |
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