My primary research interests are in the formulation of dynamic equilibrium models, their efficient computation, and their estimation. However, I have also worked on issues related to economic history and political economy.

Below you can get pdf copies of my papers and codes for reproducing some of the computations involved.

New Items

March 20, 2019. My paper "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution" with Galo Nuño and Samuel Hurtado can be found here. The slides are here.

March 20, 2019. My paper "Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space" with Matthew J. Delventhal and Nezih Guner can be found here.

March 20, 2019. A preliminary version of my paper "Fractured-Land and the Puzzle of Political Unification and Fragmentation" with Mark Koyama, Youhong Lin, and Tuan-Hwee Sng can be found here.

March 16, 2019. My paper "Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Fiscal Policy" with Federico Mandelman, Yang Yu, and Francesco Zanetti can be found here.

October 9, 2018. We updated our paper "A Practical Guide to Parallelization in Economics" here to include the new Julia 1.0 parallelization syntax. The Github repository: here is also updated.

September 15, 2018. An interview about my research published at Econ Focus, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, can be found here.

September 11, 2018. The paper "Cryptocurrencies: A Crash Course in Digital Monetary Economics" can be found here. Una traducción al español aquí.

August 27, 2018. A new paper "The Lack of European Productivity Growth: Causes and Lessons for the U.S." with Lee Ohanian can be found here.

April 22, 2018. A new paper "A Practical Guide to Parallelization in Economics" here. An easy-to-follow guide of what you need to know to start coding in parallel in economics. It comes with a Github repository: here. Download and fork the codes!

March 22, 2018. An update on the computations on "A Comparison of Programming Languages" here with the results for new versions of each language. Bottom line: Matlab and R have improved a lot, Python is still awful, and Julia rocks!

February 10, 2018. A short paper on the economics of minimum wage regulations here.


Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models.

Joint with Juan Rubio-Ramirez and Frank Schorfheide.


The New Macroeconometrics: A Bayesian Approach.

Joint with Pablo Guerron-Quintana and Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez.


Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space

Joint with Matthew J. Delventhal and Nezih Guner.


Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Fiscal Policy

Joint with Federico Mandelman, Yang Yu, and Francesco Zanetti.


Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution

Joint with Galo Nuño and Samuel Hurtado.


Political Distribution Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations

Joint with Thorsten Drautzburg and Pablo Guerron-Quintana.


Safe Assets

Joint with Robert Barro, Oren Levintal, and Andrew Mollerus.


Can Currency Competition Work?

Joint with Daniel Sanches.

A short companion paper summarizing some of the findings can be found here


Cryptocurrencies: A Crash Course in Digital Monetary Economics


Optimal Capital Versus Labor Taxation with Innovation-Led Growth.

Joint with Philippe Aghion and Ufuk Akcigit.


Nonlinear Adventures at the Zero Lower Bound.

Joint with Grey Gordon, Pablo Guerron, and Juan Rubio-Ramirez.


Supply-Side Policies and the Zero Lower Bound.

Joint with Pablo Guerron and Juan Rubio-Ramirez.


Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity.

Joint with Keith Kuester, Pablo Guerron and Juan Rubio-Ramirez.


Reading the Recent Monetary History of the U.S., 1959-2007.

Joint with Pablo Guerron-Quintana and Juan Rubio-Ramirez.


A Review Sesssion for Monetary and Fiscal Policy.


Macroeconomics and Volatility: Data, Models, and Estimation.

Joint with Juan Rubio-Ramirez.


Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data.

Joint with Pablo Guerron-Quintana and Juan Rubio-Ramirez.


The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model with Recursive Preference.

Joint with Jules van Binsbergen, Ralph Koijen, and Juan Rubio-Ramirez.


Fiscal Policy in a Model with Financial Frictions.

An extended version of the model can be found here.


Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks.

Joint with Pablo Guerron-Quintana, Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, and Martin Uribe.


From Shame to Game in One Hundred Years: An Economic Model of the Rise in Pre-marital Sex and its De-Stigmatization.

Joint with Jeremy Greenwood and Nezih Guner.


A,B,C's (and D)'s for Understanding VARs.

Joint with Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, Tom Sargent, and Mark Watson.

The older (and longer) working paper version is here.


Life-Cycle Consumption, Debt Constraints and Durable Goods

Joint with Dirk Krueger.


Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts from Consumer Expenditure Survey Data.

Joint with Dirk Krueger.

Here you can find the technical appendix of the paper with further details about our estimation.


Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model without Commitment (incomplete draft).

Joint with Aleh Tsyvinski.


Was Malthus Right? Economic Growth and Population Dynamics.

Some Further Notes on "Was Malthus Right? Economic Growth and Population Dynamics".

These notes present further discussion of several aspects of "Was Malthus Right? Economic Growth and Population Dynamics". They should be read following each particular section of the main paper.


Can We Really Observe Hyperbolic Discounting?

Joint with the late Arijit Mukherji.


Evaluating Labor Market Reforms: A General Equilibrium Approach.

Joint with Cesar Alonso-Borrego and Jose E. Galdon.


On the Solution of the Growth Model with Investment-Specific Technological Change.

Joint with Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez.


A Practical Guide to Parallelization in Economics.

Joint with David Zarruk Valencia.

Github repository: here


Comparing Solution Methods for Dynamic Equilibrim Economies.

Joint with S. Boragan Aruoba and Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez.

Click on this link to go to the companion web page where you can find the codes used in this paper.


Solution Methods for Models with Rare Disasters.

Joint with Oren Levintal.

Companion code here.


A Comparison of Programming Languages in Economics.

Joint with S. Boragan Aruoba.

Click on this link to get the codes used in this paper.


Tapping the Supercomputer Under Your Desk: Solving Dynamic Equilibrium Models with Graphics Processors.

Joint with Eric Aldrich, Ron Gallant, and Juan Rubio-Ramirez


Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences and Stochastic Volatility.

Joint with Dario Caldara, Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, and Yao Wen.


Solving DSGE Models with Perturbation Methods and a Change of Variables.

Joint with Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez.

Mathematica Notebook to compute the optimal change of variables.


A Generalization of the Endogenous Grid Method.

Joint with Francisco Barillas.

Fortran Code to compute the models describe in the paper using the Endogenous Grid Method and Value function iteration.


Our Research Agenda: Estimating DSGE Models .

Joint with Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez.

This note, which appears in the newsletter of the Review of Economic Dynamics, fall 2006, describes our agenda on the estimation of DSGE Models. We discuss our different papers and explain how they fit together.


The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications.

Joint with Martin Andreasen and Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez.

A detailed technical appendix is here. Codes for Dynare 4.4: here.


The Econometrics of DSGE Models.


MEDEA: A DSGE Model for the Spanish Economy.

Joint with Pablo Burriel and Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez.


Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach.

Joint with Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez.

The technical appendix offers further details in some aspects of the paper.


Sequential Monte Carlo Filtering: an Example

Here you can find a simple example of how to use a Sequential Monte Carlo to evaluate the likelihood function of a nonlinear and non-normal process.


Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: Linear versus Nonlinear Likelihood.

Joint with Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez.


How Structural Are Structural Parameter Values?.

Joint with Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez.


Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models.

Also, NBER Working Paper version, with more details.

Joint with Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez and Manuel Santos.


Horizons of Undertanding.


The Economics of Minimum Wage Regulations


The Economic Consequences of Labor Market Regulations


Fractured-Land and the Puzzle of Political Unification and Fragmentation

Joint with Mark Koyama, Youhong Lin, and Tuan-Hwee Sng.


Magna Carta, the Rule of Law, and the Limits on Government.


Health Care (a proposal for reform, published in "The Thriving Society: On The Social Conditions of Human Flourishing").


An interview about my views of the relation between economics and history that came out in Politikon (sorry, in Spanish).